Felician University Library: School of Business &amp; Information Sciences: Decision Theory

Decision Theory eBooks

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis by Robert J. Lempert; Steven W. Popper; Steven C. Bankes
Call Number: e-book
ISBN: 9780833034854
Publication Date: 2003
A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA).
Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps that Lead to Debacles by Paul C. Nutt
Call Number: e-book
ISBN: 9781605091495
Publication Date: 2002
Why decisions fail critiques 15 infamously bad decisions that became public debacles. Including the Firestone tire recall and Quakers failed acquisition of Snapple, the author examines how these mistakes could have been avoided and explains how any organizations decision-making process can be improved to prevent such failures. Paul Nutt began by looking at 400 decisions made by top managers involving such topics as products and services, pricing and markets, personnel policy, technology acquisition, and strategic reorganization. Analyzing how each decision was made, he determined that two out of three decisions were based on failure-prone or questionable tactics. He identifies these key errors and suggests alternatives that have proven successful.

Decision Theory Seminal Works

Decision Theory Seminal Works

Bibliography

Ajzen, I. & Fishein, M. (1980). Understanding and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall: ISBN: 0139364358

Bensoussan, B. & Flesher, C. (2012). Analysis Without Paralysis: 12 Tools to Make Better Decisions. NY: Pearson: ISBN: 013310129

Bram, U. (2013). Thinking Statistically. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform: ISBN: 1481173502

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences. NY: Routledge: ISBN: 0805802835

Gigerenzer, G. (2008). Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious. NY: Penguin: ASIN: B000TO0T8U

Gladwell, M. (2005). Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. NY: Little, Brown & Co. : ASIN: B009CV5GX4

Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2004). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. Chichester: Wiley: ISBN: 0470861088

Halleman, J. (2010). Why We Make Mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Well Above Average. NY: Broadway Books: ISBN: 0767928061

Hammond, J. S. & Keeney, R. (1998). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Review Press: ISBN: 0875848575

Heath, C. & Heath, D. (2013). Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. NY: Crown Business: ISBN: 0307956393

Kahnemank, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux: ASIN: B00555X80A

Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value=focused Thinking – A Path to Creative Decision-making. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press: ASIN: B00N4JDYF2

Koomey, J. G. (2008). Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving. NY: Analytics Press: ISBN 0970601921

Leach, P. (2006). Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number? An Executive’s Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and Make Better Decisions. NY: Probabilistic Publishers: ISBN: 0964793857

Lehrer, J. (2009). How We Decide. NY: Houghton Miller: ASIN: B00QD981FG

Lempert, R., Popper, S., & Bankes, S. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis. RAND Corp: ISBN:0833032755

Morgan, M. G. & Henrion, M. (1992). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press: ISBN: 0521427444

Nutt, P. (2002). Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps that Lead to Debacles. NY: Berrett-Koehler Publishers: ASIN: B001QCX4I6

Raiffa, H. (1970). Decision Analysis – Introductory Lectures on Choices. NY: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company: ISBN 0201062909

Rosenzweig, P. (2007). The Halo Effect… and Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers. NY: Simon & Schuster: ISBN: 0743291263

Schwartz, B. (2009). The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less. NY: Harper Perennial: ISBN: 00600005696

Shore, Z. (2005). Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions. NY: Bloomsbury USA: ISBN: 1596916435

Siegel, E. (2013). Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Lie, or Die. NY: Wiley: 1118356853

Silver, K. (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t. NY: Penguin Press: ISBN: 1594204111

Surowiecki, J. (2005). The Wisdom of Crowds. NY: Anchor: ISBN: 0385721707

Taleb, N. N. (2007). Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Markets and in Life. NY: Random House: ASIN: B003JHKLIN

Useem, M. (2008). The Go Point: When It’s Time to Decide – Knowing What to Do and When to Do It. NY: Crown Business: ISBN: 1400082986

Decision Theory Books

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Call Number: BF441 .K238 2011 (Lodi Campus Library)
ISBN: 9780374275631
Publication Date: 2011
In this work the author, a recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making, has brought together his many years of research and thinking in one book. This author's work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this book, he takes us on a tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think and the way we make choices.
The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig
Call Number: HD30.19.R67 2007 (Lodi Campus Library)
ISBN: 9780743291255
Publication Date: 2007
Challenges popular misconceptions about business success, explaining how experts mistakenly assume that money-making companies naturally prioritize strong leadership and clear strategies as well as high profits.
Predictive Analytics by Eric Siegel
Call Number: H61.4 .S54 2013 (Lodi Campus Library); also available as an e-book
ISBN: 9781119145677
Publication Date: 2016-01-20
In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. Predictive analytics transcends human perception.
The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver
Call Number: CB158 .S54 2012 (Lodi Campus Library)
ISBN: 9781594204111
Publication Date: 2012
In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common.
The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki
Call Number: JC328.2.S87 2004 (Lodi Campus Library)
ISBN: 9780385503860
Publication Date: 2004
In this book, New Yorker columnist Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant--better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. This seemingly counterintuitive notion has major ramifications for how businesses operate, how knowledge is advanced, how economies are (or should be) organized and how we live our daily lives.
How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer
Call Number: BF448.L45 2010 (Lodi Campus Library)
ISBN: 9780547247991
Publication Date: 2010
Offers a fascinating look at the new science of decision-making--and how it can help us make better choices.